The Underemployed
More than 18% in the U.S. are still underemployed.[1] This will continue to place a burden on retailers, home builders, and banks. Many U.S. cities and states will be forced to downsize their labor force and make cuts in other areas as high unemployment continues to limit the amount of revenue they receive.[2][3][4] Not long ago, the Governor of California declared a fiscal emergency.[5]
Real Estate
Foreclosure has decreased the amount of credit available to many.[6] Fewer people with good credit will cause retail sales to flatten or shrink, which will not translate into any improvement in commercial real estate.[7]
While sellers continue to cut prices, home sales continue to plunge.[8][9] Many homes still have yet to be unloaded by banks.[10]
New Taxes
Many new taxes will take effect in less than six months.[11] These taxes will take a massive toll on the economy.
European Debt Crisis
The austerity packages in Europe will decrease the amount Europeans have to spend, which will affect what they spend on American products.[12] Some believe “Europe is still in deep, deep in trouble.”[13] Portugal and Ireland’s debt ratings were recently downgraded.[14][15] Hungary’s debt rating could be downgraded again shortly.[16] Greece’s debt rating is already at junk status.[17]
Reasons the Correction Will Occur Before Year-End
-Even though the death cross is not a particularly useful metric on its own, it is on the minds of those holding.
-As more housing and jobs reports come in worse or as bad as expected, more weak hands will sell.
-The massive rally was mainly driven by optimists. Analysts continued to regurgitate that jobs were a lagging indicator and that once numbers started to improve, they would continue to improve and not level off. More and more are beginning to see the writing on the wall. Hope was the primary driver of this rally, and that hope is fading.
I own SPY puts and QQQQ puts
Sources:
1. gallup.com/poll/141770/Underemployment-Steady-July.aspx
2. finance.yahoo.com/news/Job-openings-drop-in-May-as-apf-1383917273.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
3. kswo.com/global/story.asp?s=12751713
4. thenewamerican.com/index.php/economy/sectors-mainmenu-46/4017-facing-fiscal-meltdown-municipalities-struggle-with-pensions-
5. thedailybeast.com/cheat-sheet/item/schwarzenegger-declares-fiscal-emergency/california-budget/
6. cnbc.com/id/38152583/US_Consumer_Credit_Plunges_in_May
7. politifi.com/news/Retail-sales-fall-adding-to-recovery-worries-930534.html
8. cnbc.com/id/38244093/Home_Sellers_Slashing_Prices_While_Banks_Mow_the_Lawn
9. cnbc.com/id/38239511/US_Home_Buying_Applications_Sink_to_13_Year_Low
10. articles.latimes.com/2010/jul/11/local/la-me-derelict-homes-20100711
11. atr.org/six-months-untilbr-largest-tax-hikes-a5171#
12. huffingtonpost.com/2010/06/29/europes-massive-austerity_n_629062.html
13. finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/greece-in-%22death-spiral%22-europe-still-in-deep-deep-trouble-says-niall-ferguson-518977.html;_ylt=Ajo2DUEbiEHW4ZXR3JQ6oo.7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE2aDFyMHY2BHBvcwMxMQRzZWMDdG9wU3RvcmllcwRzbGsDZXVyb3Blc3RpbGxp?tickers=udn,uup,ero,fxe,spy,%5Eftse&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
14. msnbc.msn.com/id/38218449/ns/world_news-europe/
15. digitaljournal.com/article/294858
16. bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-23/moody-s-places-hungary-s-baa1-sovereign-rating-under-review-for-downgrade.html
17. money.cnn.com/2010/04/27/news/international/Greece_debt_downgraded/index.htm
The aim of Options trading now is to feature a critical view of the market, while providing a detailed report of my options trading. I have been trading puts for some time and am currently holding qqqq puts and spy puts.
